Before a company expands, make the assumptions visible

An expansion case starts with what must be true

A public repository frames an expansion business case for Mottu. The title alone points to a consequential choice: whether a business should carry its operating model into another market, and what evidence would justify that move.

A map can show where to go. It cannot tell a founder whether local demand, supply, operating capacity and cash timing fit together. Before choosing a destination, write down the assumptions that connect the opportunity to the outcome.

Separate the observed from the assumed

Start with a measured baseline: the current customer journey, cost to serve, capacity constraints and the factors that can be observed in company records. Keep estimates such as conversion, launch cost or time-to-ramp in a separate assumptions register, each with a range and an owner.

Then run scenarios. A base case is not a forecast merely because it sits in the middle of a spreadsheet. Show the downside that would change the decision, the upside that depends on the most fragile assumption, and the next piece of research that would reduce uncertainty.

Make the decision reversible where possible

A strong business case names a first step small enough to learn from: a pilot market, a limited capacity commitment or a customer segment worth validating. Define what would make the team scale, pause or exit before the result arrives.

That turns expansion planning from a persuasive slide into a decision model people can revisit when reality disagrees with the plan.

Explore the project repository · mottu-expansion-business-case ↗